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I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 15:20

In my 29 years, I have done quite a few rather stupid things.

In 2017, I accepted an invitiation by a quintet of Quebec-based West African gangsters to smoke weed in a car, and genuinely feared for my life during the ordeal. In 2005, I p*ssed against the window of a police station in broad daylight prior to a Metallica concert. In 1996 or 1997, I picked up a syringe on a beach during an outing with the Cub Scouts.

Point is, my judgement fails me at the best of times - you could probably chalk that last one down to a bit of childish naievity - but for my next trick I'll be doing something so unbelievable, something so outrageous, something thicker than Nutella: I'm backing Arsenal to qualify for the top four.

Wenger claimed today that it remains his goal and, although it seems completely ludicrous when you consider our form, I can't ignore the 22/1 for a number of reasons. It's not quite a free odd as De Times would say, but I do believe there's quite a lot of value there and let me tell you why.

1) After Manchester City tomorrow, six of our next seven Premier League games are against teams in the bottom half - Brighton, Watford, Stoke, Southampton, Newcastle and West Ham. I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, 'Shane, I wouldn't back us to beat any of those' and you're right, because neither would I on current form, but is our form about to improve?

2) We all think Arsenal are done under Wenger, and that's entirely plausible because Sunday was pathetic on so many different levels, but if the modern history of Arsenal has taught us anything it's that no matter how much it looks like the end, it genuinely never is.

I mean, if you wanted to you could find similar 'this is the end' moments in probably four of the last six seasons, but whether it's bouncing back from a 3-0 defeat at Palace by beating City and Chelsea to win the FA Cup, or clawing back a 12-point deficit on Tottenham to finish in the top four, results do pick up in a major way in times like these and if they do so again, is a top-four finish that unlikely when you consider our fixture list?

3) Tottenham and Liverpool are both one injury away from complete disaster, whereas Chelsea really aren't that much better than us.

It might not be tomorrow, but we're going to go on a good run pretty soon. That 22/1 is overpriced in my view and I think it'll be slashed on a gradual basis over the coming weeks and months.

I'll post a photo of the docket when it's done.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: PKGooner (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 15:30

No.

This prediction even more disastrous than the time you accidentally sliced your balls.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: MattySadler (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 15:51

Good luck mate.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 15:55

Quote:
PKGooner
No.
This prediction even more disastrous than the time you accidentally sliced your balls.

There is plenty of value here PK. Ask Flava, Celine or De Times.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 15:55

Quote:
MattySadler
Good luck mate.

Who needs luck when you have logic and a knowledge of how Arsenal historically respond to crisis.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: MattySadler (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 16:35

We'll see!

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: BootyDaddy (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 16:37

Wenger is finished and so are we under his management. The demise has been getting worse and worse for well over a decade to the point now we are a top 6 side, at best.

We have have lost half of our away games already (7 out of 14) and only won 3 (out of those 14). That form and this manager will never land us a top 4 spot again.



Albert Einstein once said: "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 17:04

Official confirmation of this investment (because that's what it is) will have to wait until tomorrow, because my local turf accounts is closed and there's a deposit limit on my PP account which I don't want to waste on a bet that can't be settled for another three months, but rest assure your deterring words will have no affect. I'm certain that it's a very good bet.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: younghansolo (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 17:22

I've been thinking for a couple of weeks of a cheeky bet on us making CL. Still think it's doable, if extremely unlikely. I have some faith in Pierre to get us the goals to give us a shot.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: SandyB (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 17:25

Quote:
In my 29 years. I have done quite a few rather stupid things.
The worst thing happened to you growing up in la la Land!! (Sm22)

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: SandyB (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 17:30

Quote:
younghansolo
I've been thinking for a couple of weeks of a cheeky bet on us making CL. Still think it's doable, if extremely unlikely. I have some faith in Pierre to get us the goals to give us a shot.
That's the backdoor route by winning Europa league, possible.. probably one or two teams are slightly better than Arsenal but I'd advise putting money against it, simple reason Wenger n his team can't perform under real pressure on a fixed target of winning a trophy or bust. Not gonna happen, there are much easier bets with better odds.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Bergmars (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 18:26

Think you've had too much of that weed mate



A shadow of what we were

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 19:35

Quote:
younghansolo
I've been thinking for a couple of weeks of a cheeky bet on us making CL. Still think it's doable, if extremely unlikely. I have some faith in Pierre to get us the goals to give us a shot.

We're a pretty good team with a bit of momentum at our backs, like any team in fairness, but there's a lot of points there for us in the coming weeks.

This bet pretty much hinges on two things: a) Arsenal going on a winning streak which, as I said, tend to follow these kind of crisis and b) any two of Spurs, Liverpool or Chelsea enduring a rough period.

So there's a few things which need to go in my favour, but sorry, 22/1 is such a worthwhile bet.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Padre Pio (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 20:28

The last time Arsenal lost the lge cup final under Wenger they only won three of the last remaining games. There is no run left in Wenger teams. There is no consistency and no hope whilst Lord Stumblebum remains



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: PKGooner (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 20:55

Quote:
younghansolo
I've been thinking for a couple of weeks of a cheeky bet on us making CL. Still think it's doable, if extremely unlikely. I have some faith in Pierre to get us the goals to give us a shot.

The way Wenger sets us up, Aubameyang (and Lacazette when playing) may as well not be on the pitch. It's like playing with 10 men. They get about 5 touches per half, never mind any clear cut chances.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 21:14

I think he'll get a lot more touches against teams who aren't City or Spurs PK.

Worth also mentioning that City and United are, on paper, the only really difficult games we have left. I say 'on paper' because a lot of games from now until May won't be easy, even the teams we ought to be hammering, but it's a handy last 10 or 11 games.

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Merlion96 (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 21:23

I think this season we had won only 3 away games.

we have 5 more away games and must win all of them if we are to make it into Top-4:
- away to Brighton
- away to Leicester
- away to Newcastle
- away to ManU
- away to Huddersfield

- Man city (h)
- Watford (h)
- Stoke (h)
- Saints (h)
- WHU (h)
- Burnley (h)

How many wins do you fancy we will pick up?

That is, to have a sniff of a chance for Top-4, we must win 9 games and draw the other 2 games to collect 29 points.
Total points = 45 + 29 = 74 points, enough to regain Top-4 status?



'In the end the most satisfying solution is the one where you have cleared everything away and there is no solution at all any more, at the same time, the problem has been solved. That's the nicest way of doing it.'
Brilliant Orange [2010]

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Optimistic Gunner (IP Logged)
Date: 28 February, 2018 21:35

We will finsh 6th.

However knowing Wenger, we might somehow win Europa and that will revert everything back to normal, just like how we won the FA Cup last season.



http://i.imgur.com/b1SeVpw.png

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Shane (IP Logged)
Date: 01 March, 2018 12:25

http://i67.tinypic.com/2a7sghe.jpg

Re: I'm doing something potentially very stupid
Posted by: Merlion96 (IP Logged)
Date: 01 March, 2018 12:37

You will never know ...

Either you are thick as a plank or has the rub of the green ...



'In the end the most satisfying solution is the one where you have cleared everything away and there is no solution at all any more, at the same time, the problem has been solved. That's the nicest way of doing it.'
Brilliant Orange [2010]

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