Tougher than Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea. The title race

Wenger is right this is a strange year for the Premiership; all the top "four" have lost more games than is expected for teams with the ambition to win the league. When Arsenal had lost five games by this stage last season, they were, quite correctly, written off as a title challenger. This year Man U have lost five. Except, quite correctly, no one has written off their title chances.

Written off and written back

Arsenal have done slightly better than last season with four losses at this stage. At present, quite correctly, no one has written off their title chances. Yet a few weeks ago after a comprehensive 3-0 defeat by Chelsea Wenger was written off as delusional by daring to suggest that the Blues would not just walk the title race.

He said he could see them losing points, this was treated with mirth, but since then Chelsea have fared very poorly and seen their lead cut back. Indeed they have only won one league game since then.  

Liverpool have fared worst of all the top four, having lost seven games and in eighth place; surely no team that has lost seven games can win the championship. The loss of Alonso has severely affected them.

Man U have suffered from the loss of Ronaldo, they often look quite ordinary, and indeed they might have looked even poorer if it was not for the ability of Diaby to score at the crucial time. They have lost key defenders just at a crucial time for the Premiership race.

Arsenal are, as I have already stated, are doing better than last season, and if RvP and Nik were not injured, the addition of Arshavin and Vermaelen might have proved that the squad are stronger than last season. However, they are injured, as are two left backs, and Eboue and Song are about to depart for Africa. Traore may play against Villa.

Thus I would argue that at this stage of the season all of the old "top four" are weaker than last year. To my mind this general weakness explains Arsenal's improved chances more than any improvements in the Arsenal squad.

This is why many pundits have been bigging up the chances of Man City, Spurs and Villa. It is not normal to write off a team that has only lost two games at this stage, but most pundits have written off Man City due to the fact that they have drawn 8 games already. Now the manager has been sacked and Kolo has been described as a Turkey by one serious pundit. Spurs are as inconsistent as ever, they have lost five games but are, for them, having a good season, but are still unable to cope with the top four.

The team to beat?

Which leaves Villa, currently in fourth place, having lost only three games (the same as Chelsea) and with the meanest defence in the Premiership (only 14 conceded compared to Chelsea's 15).

They have already beat Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool this season. Arsenal have beaten Liverpool but lost to the first two. There is no doubt that Villa are the form team, and they are the team to beat. They have scored fewer goals than Arsenal, but they only needed one goal to win away at Man U.

This is going to be a tight game

Villa are unbeaten on their last three visits to Arsenal (W1, D2) winning 2-0 on their last visit , and drawing 2-2 at home on Boxing day. In truth they outplayed Arsenal on both occasions.

Carew, Agbonlahor, Young are all strong and effective front men. True they haven't outscored the Arsenal strikers in total, although Agbonlahor has 8 goals in the league, two more than Arshavin. The rest of Arsenal's strikers are not available.

Fabregas has the next highest score of those still in the squad with seven league goals. His presence could be crucial to this game, but it looks increasingly unlikely he will be fit in time.

If Fabregas doesn't play then defences will be key, Villa are more happy with Dunne than City are with Kolo and have concede only eight away. They can be harder to break down than Chelsea (conceded 10 away). The big question is can Arsenal's powder puff attack get past the big men? They got past Liverpool, but they couldn't get past Chelsea. Can Arshavin, Eduardo/Walcott do more damage than Carew, Agbonlahor, Young? A big question that will possibibly be the key to the whole game.

Lots of fine midfield play without incisive finishing could cost Arsenal dearly. They will need to get quite a few men into the box if they are to score, but that could leave the team exposed to the pace of Agbonlahor and Young. It will be a tricky operation that will require 100% concentration. A win will be great, but there are worse things than drawing, ask Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool.