Can Arsenal win league with lowest points total this century

Arsenal fans are split down the middle as to whether this squad can win the league or not. It’s a bit like the pantomime season, the win at Villa will encourage the “oh yes they can!” stalwarts; whilst other will shout “behind you!”, or the fact that it’s Manchester United away in a two weeks time.

I expected Arsenal to win away at Villa, as this is the poorest Villa side in a very long time. Foolishly I predicted 2-1, as I know we always concede one. I just don’t understand how anyone can predict Arsenal not conceding. It’s like saying your last and only supply of water in the desert is safe in a leaky bucket. However our statutory conceding of  goal a game seems to be suffering inflation, with 2 or 3 now becoming the regular leakage.

It really does remind me of the Arsenal of the mid 1950s to 1960s, on one occasion losing 5-4 at home to Man U at home, lots of entertainment and no trophies.

 True the first goal at Villa was a disgrace, how was Carew not offside? If you are blocking the vision of the keeper how are you not interfering with play? Do Villa practice this kind of goal? Will more teams copy it? I can imagine the instructions “right Rooney if we don’t score for 20 minutes pretend to be injured two yards in front of Fabianski”.

Can Arsenal win Premiership with lowest points this century?

Nevertheless, the rollercoaster ride continues, win away, and play badly at home. There is a point of view that the poor home form doesn’t matter because the team is so close to the top. I would argue that the league position is not due to the greatness of Wenger’s squad, indeed it is strange that a team that has lost 4 games before the end of November is still in the race. The reason for Arsenal’s giddy height is that the top teams have declined.

Decline of the top teams

Manchester United are averaging 2 points a game, if, all things being equal, they were to maintain that rate, and their rivals were to continue at the same rate, either they or Chelsea would win the league with 78 points. The lowest total this century.

It’s interesting to note that this points rate of 2 a game is the lowest rate in Europe for the top team, bar France. In Spain Real are top with 2.7 a game, in Germany at the top its 2.3 and Italy 2.2.

Some choose to see this as proof that the Premiership has more strength in depth. Something has changed, but I am not convinced by the strength in depth argument. Are Chelsea and Man U Squads as strong as ever? I don’t think so, nor contrary to Wenger’s claims is this the greatest Arsenal squad. No the top three are weaker, all having either lost more games, or in United’s case drawn too many. Arsenal have conceded 17 goals and Man U 16 goals at this early stage. Two teams in the top three on course for conceding 38 goals!

This weakness in the top teams means that the lower teams now consider it is worth having a go at the top clubs. So WBA didn’t come to Arsenal to just defend, and it paid off, more incredibly Sunderland beat Chelsea at the Bridge, not by defending but by creating more chances than their opponents.

It could be said that anyone can beat anyone on their day, except for Arsenal that doesn’t seem to include Chelsea or Man U.

So can Arsenal win the league?

At the present Arsenal are on target for 73 points, of course things could change for any of the top three, one of them might go on a run and pull away. Clearly Arsenal will have to improve their points per game rating, and as there is not much scope for improving the best away record. However, an improvement at home would see the rate go up. To win the league Arsenal must raise their home form to the level of the away form, if they don’t the away form may drop to the level of that at home.  They will have to go on a run, something they have proved incapable of over the last five seasons.

As entertaining as the midfield now is, the Achilles heel is the defence. But improving home form alone would not guarantee winning the title, after all it would only take Man U to turn those draws into wins and they would race ahead.