Is Wenger's Youth Policy a Mirage?
Help ma Bob
By Merlion
September 17 2011
Alan Hansen, “You don’t win anything with kids”This was the famous remark in 1995 when Alan Hansen assessed Manchester United. He was wrong because Man Utd went on to win the League by four points from Kelvin Keegan’s Newcastle United, which famously succumbed to Ferguson’s mind game.But he wasn’t wrong because Man Utd XI won the 1995/96 title with an average age of 25.46 years. A sample of Man Utd’s players in 1995/96:
31 year old Schmeichel
31 year old Parker
31 year old McClair
30 year old Pallister
29 year old Irwin
24 year old Lee Sharpe
24 year old Roy Keane
21 year old Ryan Giggs
20 year old David Beckham
20 year old Nicky Butt
20 year old Paul Scholes
20 year old Gary Nelville
18 year old Phil Nelville
That is, it is all smoke and mirrors with everyone fooled by journalists and pundits who focused only on 3 or 4 young players in the team and forgot all about those experienced players who are the backbone of any title-winning team.
Below are extracts (minor revision by me) from the very informative 2010 book by Paul Tomkins “Pay as you Play” – The True Price of Success in the Premier League Era.
In terms of the Premier League as a whole, the average age of a premiership team has been 26.83 years. The youngest club – based on the average age of all XIs they have fielded in the Premier League – is Crystal Palace, at 25.48.
The youngest team ever to play a Premier League season is O’Leary Leeds United in 1999/00 season with an average age of just 23.97 years. As well as O’Leary, plenty of managers have lowered average ages than Wenger’s (and most of them get little or no praise for playing ‘the kids’).
Benitez’s Liverpool averaged an age of 26.22;
Ferguson’s United have an average playing age of 26.59;
Martin O’Neill in his time at Leicester and Aston Villa fielded teams with an average of 26.74.
Gerrard Houllier’s Liverpool average age was well below Wenger’s, with the average age of his Liverpool teams standing at 25.21 years – a good year and a half younger than the average Arsenal side under Wenger.
Based on a span of 18 years (or seasons), those “evergreen” in Premier League had an average age as follows:
25.73 years – Liverpool
26.13 years – Spurs
26.34 years – Aston Villa
26.59 years – Manchester United
26.90 years – Chelsea
27.02 years – Arsenal
27.16 years – Everton
Chelsea won the title in 2004/05 with the youngest squad an average age of 25.21 years. And Chelsea also won the title in 2009/10 with the oldest squad with an average of 28.73 years.
Teams do not win the Premier League with kids. And the average of Premier League champions is 26.69 years from 1992/93 to 2009/10. This proved Arsene Wenger’s assertion that a player reaches his peak between 24 to 27 years old.
Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal won the Premier League title with an average age of over 27 years:
1997/98 – 28.09 years
2001/02 – 27.09 years
2003/04 – 27.28 years
The sad truth is that Arsene Wenger’s Premiership League team has an average playing age of 26.84 years, almost exactly the Premier League average.
Young blood: Who gives youngsters their Premier League break?
So which clubs like to develop home-grown talent and which managers give their youngsters a chance?
The club that has given Premier League debuts to the most youth team players is Manchester United with an impressive 40 since 1992.
Next is Middlesboro with a very healthy 32 debuts for youngsters – even better when consider they have been out of the top flight for four of the 18 seasons. Of course, Steve Gibson famously wanted to create a team of locals. And indeed, Steve McLaren handed debuts to an impressive 18 youngsters during his reign – including a team made up almost entirely of local academy players for his final game against Fulham (albeit a meaningless game) in the 2005/06 season. The average age of the starting XI at Fulham that day was just 20 years, making it the youngest ever Premier League side.
Arsenal ranked 3rd, with a total of 28 youth team players coming through the ranks. Arsene Wenger has been responsible for 18 of those debuts – again perhaps not as many as you might think; after all, it’s the same number as Steve McLaren, who was in the Middlesboro job for just five seasons compared with Wenger’s 14 so far.
Next are Manchester City with 26 youth team debuts, and a host of other clubs fairly well renowned for their academies: Spurs (25), Aston Villa (22), West Ham (22), Newcastle (22), Leeds United (21), Everton (21), Liverpool (15) and Chelsea (15).
When it comes to managers, no one can live with Ferguson, who can lay claim to giving all 40 of Manchester United’s youths their Premier League debuts.
Wenger and McLaren are next with their 18 apiece – over 14 seasons in Wenger’s case and just 5 seasons in McLaren’s.
Next are Peter Reid and George Graham with a laudable 17 youth player debuts each in respective spells at Manchester City and Sunderland, and Arsenal, Leeds and Spurs.
Bryan Robson is next alongside Kevin Keegan. They both gave debuts to 14 youngsters.
Alan Curbishley has 13 at Charlton and West Ham, along wth Graham taylor who gave 13 trainee debuts at Watford and Aston Villa.
Gerry Francis, Howard Wilkinson and Graeme Souness have 12 each. Trevor Francis handed out 11 youth debuts, while Harry Redknapp, Joe Royle and Brian Little each gave 10.
At the low end, Jose Mourinho gave debuts to just 2 trainees in his 3 seasons at Chelsea. Kenny Dalglish gave debut to Jason Wilcox at Blackburn, but no other trainees either in his 3 seasons at Blackburn or in his 6-month spell with Newcastle.
Extracts from Paul Tomkins “Pay as you Play”
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Therefore, Arsene Wenger is a superb spin doctor building up a reputation of fielding and depending on kids to win trophies, with all the tabloids and pundits lapping it all up. Simply Arsene Wenger fielded 3 or 4 youngsters in League matches. However, Arsene Wenger cleverly used the Carling Cup matches to build up his reputation of “ implicit faith in youth” with some great performances by his teenagers. And many of his “talented youths” proved to be flops at Arsenal like Jeffers, Richard Wright, Pennant, David Bentley, Muamba, Justin Hoyte, Jay Simpson, Larsson, Parisio, Barazite, Aliadiere, Merida, Senderos, Armand Traore, Bendtner, the list is endless, but to be fair it’s the same at most other clubs with academies. The great Herbert Chapman noted that it is only a small percentage that ever make it.
Only a rare few made the break-through as regulars in the first team, namely, Anelka, Fabregas, Clichy, Djourou, Gibbs, Walcott, Wilshere, Ramsey, Frimpong and Szczesny. And this is over a span of 15 years from 1996/97 to 2010/11 season.
Let’s look at the age profile of the 2010/11 squad, which regrettably includes duds like Almunia and Squillaci. First eleven marked as starters:
First Team Players Birth Year Joined on
1) 34 year-old Almunia 1977 2004 Jul
2) 25 year-old Abou Diaby 1986 2006 Jan
3) 28 year-old Bacary Sagna 1983 2007 Jul Starter (1)
4) 27 year-old Per Mertesacker 1984 2011 Aug Starter (2)
5) 26 year-old Thomas Vermaelen 1985 2009 Jun Starter (3)
6) 26 year-old Lauren Koscielny 1985 2010 Jul
7) 31 year-old Tomas Rosicky 1980 2006 May
8) 29 year-old Mikel Arteta 1982 2011 Aug Starter (4)
9) 26 year-old Ju Young Park 1985 2011 Aug
10) 28 year-old Robin van Persie 1983 2004 May Starter (5)
11) 21 year-old Carlos Vela 1989 2008 Jan on-loan
12) 28 year-old Andre Santos 1983 2011 Aug
13) 21 year-old Wojciech Szczesny 1990 2007 Aug Starter (6)
14) 22 year-old Theo Walcott 1989 2006 Jan Starter (7)
15) 18 year-old Oxlade-Chamberlain 1993 2011 Aug
16) 21 year-old Aaron Ramsey 1990 2008 Jun
17) 24 year-old Alex Song 1987 2005 Aug Starter (8)
18) 31 year-old Sebastian Squillaci 1980 2010 Aug
19) 19 year-old Jack Wilshere 1992 2001 Oct Starter (9)
20) 24 year-old Johan Djourou 1987 2003 Aug
21) 26 year-old Lukasz Fabianski 1985 2007 May
22) 30 year-old Andrev Asrhavin 1981 2009 Feb
23) 23 year-old Vito Mannone 1988 2004 Jul
24) 19 year-old Carl Jenkinson 1992 2011 Jun
25) 19 year-old Emmanuel Frimpong 1992 2008 Jul
26) 24 year-old Gervinho 1987 2011 Jul Starter (10)
27) 22 year-old Keiran Gibbs 1989 2007 Sep Starter (11)
28) 27 year-old Marouane Chamakh 1984 2010 May
29) 31 year-old Yossi Benyaoun 1980 2011 Aug
30) 19 year-old Ryo Miyaichi 1992 2011 Jan
31) 23 year-old Nicklas Bendtner 1988 2004 Aug away on-loan
32) 23 year-old Denilson 1988 2006 Aug away on-loan
33) 21 year-old Henri Lansbury 1990 2007 Jul away on-loan
34) 19 year-old Joel Campbell 1992 2011 Aug away on-loan
The average age of this 29-man squad (excluding players loaned out) is 25.10 years.
The average age of First XIs (marked as starter) is 24.54 years; which is well below the average of Premier League champions of 26.69 years from 1992/93 to 2009/10.
Therefore, the squad average age of 25.10 years reflects clearly on our lack of a core of experienced 24 to 27 year old quality players; and Arsene Wenger is still too dependent on a largish group of 18 to 22 year old "inexperienced" youngsters to win honour(s) this season. Since the emergence of 17 year old Fabregas in 2004/05 season, this over “dependence of youngsters" has been repeated every season for the past 7 seasons.
Unless Arsenal’s core group of youngsters are of exceptional quality like Ferguson 1995/96 squad (average age of 25.46 years) or Mourinho 2004/05 squad (average age of 25.21 years), Arsenal’s 2011/12 squad is simply too young, too inexperienced, and devoid of marquee players to even mount a serious title challenge, let alone winning any trophy this season.
Fergie’s 18 to 21 year old Fledgings (Giggs, Beckham, Butt, Scholes, Nelville Sisters) had the likes of senior players like Eric Cantona, Schmeichel, McClair, Parker, Pallister, Irwin, Lee Sharpe, Roy Keane, et al.
Mourinho’s 2004/05 squad has the likes of Terry, Gallas, Bridges, Makelele, Drogba, Cech, Lampard, Duff, Carvalho, Ferreira, Thiago, Robben, Crespo, Mutu, Scott Parker, et al.
Arsenal’s average age of 25.10 years is damning as at one extreme, we have duds like 34 year old Almunia, 31 year old Squillaci and “Sick-Note” Rosicky, 30 year-old Arshavin; and new buys like 29 year old Arteta, 28 year old Santos, 26 year old Ju Young Park and loaned 31 year old Benayoun, boosting our "average age" higher to project that "it is an experienced squad". But the squad is really full of raw and talented youngsters, unproven in Premier League, in Ryo, AOC, Jenkinson, Szczesny, Ramsey and Gibbs.
Wilshere, Szczesny, Ramsey and Gibbs are still developing and like Fabregas, will need at least 2 more years of development before they are fully developed and matured into the first team as senior players.
A more damning statement on the failure of Wenger’s Youth Policy would be a comparison of honours won by Ferguson and Mourinho. Wenger Wunderkind have now flopped with 6 trophyless seasons and disintegrated on August 31, 2011 with the major rebuilding of Wenger Wunderkind Mark 2. It may take the 2 to 5 years before we dare to dream of a title-winning team. That is, like the rebuilding from 1997/98 to 2001/02 – a span of 4 years – it will take the same period of 4 years to gel the existing players with new buys and 18 to 20 years old breaking into the first team.
I envisage that Wenger’s 4th Arsenal team can only be title-contenders in 2013/14 if all those youngsters fulfil their potential and develop as an “Ajax Model of team-Building”.
Alternatively, if Arsene Wenger adopted the “2004/05 Mourinho’s Model” by spending £50million to £70million to buy world-class and marquee 24 to 27 year-old players during January 2012 and August 2012 to strengthen the squad it could ensure a Top-4 finish; as well as being good preparation for 2012/13 season.
In summary, this Arsene Wenger’s 4th Arsenal team will not be a title-contender for the next 3 years as it is short of quality and experienced players and quality youngsters, such as Mourinho’s Chelsea which won the 1995/96 title with an average age of 25.21 years. Man Utd won the 1995/96 title with an average age of 25.46 years. The best we can look forward to is to retain Top-4 status for this season.
2011/12 Arsenal Team Key Performance Index (KPI):
- · Retain Top-4 status;
- · Qualify for CL Cup quarter-final;
- · Qualify for FA Cup semi-final;
- · Qualify for Carling Cup semi-final.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2011:09:23:19:02:40 by Padre Pio.
*Signing Ozil is a signing Bergkamp type moment for Arsenal. It changes things utterly.*
Can We Now Trust The Process 🤔🤷🏿♀️ or Should We Still Remain Cautious 🙇🏿♀️
*Signing Ozil is a signing Bergkamp type moment for Arsenal. It changes things utterly.*
Quote:eduardo
maple the sale of traore was agreed the week before the utd game, that raises another question as to why in hell he was picked to play,
Fair enough but like u say, he should not have been selected in the first place.
But there was no youth poilcy but a cheaper youth poliocy in place at Arsenal. Look at the number of young talents making their way into European football since our youth poloicy was christened at other top clubs. From Cristiano(or if you oprefer Crisatain) Ronaldo through Pato, Aguero,Nani and Benzema right up to Romelu Laukaku and Phil Jones this summer - we have seen tons of gifted young players simply too expensive for Arsenal at any age apparently.
There is proof of what our youth policy was at most and at best. As I say though it makes sense that the youth policy wasn;'t all that it seemed as the reasons the policy were neccesitated weren't as they have benn said either. They are in fact the modern version of The Arsenal Stadium Mystery.
Quote:eduardo
just one question merl what is considered a youth team player in regards to "giving youth team players their FAPL debut"
SOrry Ed, I can't answer your quesiton as it is an extract from Paul Tomkins "Pay as you Play", a helluva "thick" book that I am stil digesting...
I recommend you all rewad this book. Very informative.
ANd my thnaks to Reds for recommending this book to moi to read...
*Signing Ozil is a signing Bergkamp type moment for Arsenal. It changes things utterly.*
_______________________________________________________
Ed, the "14" you referred to is the "14 seasons" from 1996 to 2010 as compared to McClaren's 5 seasons with Boro.
1 - 19 year old Jenkinson
2 - 19 year old Frimpong
3 - 20 year old COquelin
4 - 18 year old Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
5 - 19 year old Ryo Miyaichi
6 - 18 year old Chuks Aneke
7 - 19 year old Ozyakup
8 - 19 year old Miquel
9 - 21 year old Henri Lansbury
If we include all those Carling Cup debutantes into our senior squad, then the average age of 2011/12 squad is 24.00 years.
We define average of our First XIV - (First Eleven + SUbstitutes) for those players that played in those 9 no. games so far:
Then, Average age for First XIV:
1 - 24.00 years = average of 2011/12 squad
2 - 24.20 years = average age for 9 games.
3 - 24.47 years = average age for 5 League games.
4 - 24.50 years = average age for 3 CL Cup games.
5 - 21.93 years = average age for 1 CC games.
Average age for First XIV:
1 - 24.71 years - Newcastle
2 - 23.86 years - Udinese 1L
3 - 23.36 years - Liverpool
4 - 24.21 years - Udinese 2L
5 - 23.57 years - ManLeeds
6 - 25.07 years - Swansea
7 - 25.43 years - Dortmund
8 - 25.64 years - Blackburn
9 - 21.93 years - Shrewsbury
We cannot blame the loss against Blackburn as "immature, inexperience and youth" as it is the oldest First XIV that was fielded.
But certainly, Arsene Wenger is still obsessed with the "Ajax Model of Team Building" wiht his overtly dependence on youths and homegrown players forming the nuclues of his 4th Team.
Let's hope that our Hale End Academy will be the equal of La maisa in producing a core group of youngsters for senior team like the present Barca's Golden Generation.
Certainly, we cna forget abut winning the title this seasona s the squad is too young and lack that core group of 24 to 27 year old matured and experienced players at thier peak.
What we can do is to fight for 3rd or 4th place with one or two cup final appearance as a bonus.
"When we had to suffer the team is a lion because they suffer together." 4 July 2020 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
Arteta on his team's first away victory at a club above them in the Premiership since September 2015 at Leicester.
BOLD - those youths that are key players and regular starter.
RED - those that made their debut in CC or Euro Cup (S*CUMS)
"Youth players" are defined as 23 year old and below:
Arsenal
1 - 21 year old Szezesny
2 - 19 year old Wilshere
3 - 22 year old Walcott
4 - 22 year old Ramsey
5 - 22 year old Gibbs
6 - 19 year old Jenkinson
7 - 19 year old Frimpong
8 - 20 year old Coquelin
9 - 18 year old Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
10- 19 year old Miquel
11- 19 year old Ryo Miyaichi
12- 18 year old Chuks Aneke
13- 19 year old Ozyakup
14-
15-
ManLeeds
1 - 21 year old De Gea
2 - 23 year old Jonny Evans
3 - 23 year old Hernandez
4 - 23 year old Anderson
5 - 22 year old Smalling
6 - 19 year old Phil Jones
7 - 22 year old Cleverley
8 - 21 year old Welbeck
9 - 21 year old Fabio de Silva
10- 21 year old Rafael de Silva
11- 21 year old Amos
12- 20 year old Macheda
13- 18 year old Progba
14- 18 year old L Cole
15- 19 year old Fryer
S*CUMS
1 - 22 year old Gareth Bale
2 - 21 year old Kyle Walker
3 - 22 year old Livermore
4 - 22 year old Giovani
5 - 20 year old Townsend
6 - 21 year old Fredericks
7 - 19 year old Carroll
8 - 19 year old Nicholson
9 - 18 year old Kane
10- 21 year old Falque
11- 20 year old Parrett
12- 22 year old Sandros
13- 18 year old Loungo
Chelski
1 - 23 year old Juan Mata
2 - 22 year old Sturridge
3 - 18 year old Lukaku
4 - 20 year old Romeu
5 - 18 year old McEachran
6 - 22 year old Bertrand
Manc City
1 - 23 year old Richards
2 - 23 year old Aguero
3 - 21 year old Balotelli
4 - 20 year old Scapuzzi
5 - 19 year old Razak
6 - 117 year old Rekik
Liverpool
1 - 21 year old Jordan Henderson
2 - 20 year old Wilson
3 - 22 year old Andy Carroll
4 - 18 year old Robinson
5 - 21 year old Kelly
6 - 19 year old Shelvey
7 - 23 year old Spearing
8 - 21 year old Coates
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You can see that ManLeeds has the best youth squad with Fergie Fledgings Mark 2 in a class of its own.
Chelski and CITEH did not invested much in youth for the present. But with their bottomless pit of petrodollars, they too are getting their acts together to invest in youths.
S*CUMS? Liverpool?
They are gettignt heir acts together with talented yougnsters breaking into senior team.
tehrefore after more than 10 years, Arsene Wenger is still way way behind ferguson in grooving in talented youngsters into senior team.
1 - 21.93 years - Arsenal
2 - 24.43 years - S*CUMS
3 - 24.64 years - Manc City
4 - 24.86 years - ManLeeds
5 - 25.77 years - Liverpool
6 - 25.79 years - Chelski
Both Chelski and Liverpool are serious on winning CC and fielded their senior team.
Arsenal, S*CUMS, both Manchester teams gave youths a chance and field 'em.
Arsenal, of course, fielded the youngest team with average age of 21.93 years.
First XVI is defined as the 11 players plus substitutes up to 14 players fielded. Average squad age in years are as follows:
....Arsenal..... ManU...Liverpool.....Man C......Chelski.... S*CUMS
1 - 24.71 ..... 24.43 ..... 25.31 ..... 25.57 ..... 29.29 ..... postpone
2 - 23.36 ..... 24.93 ..... 25.54 ..... 25.71 ..... 29.50 ..... 27.00
3 - 23.57 ..... 24.93 ..... 26.21 ..... 25.58 ..... 28.50 ..... 27.00
4 - 25.07 ..... 25.79 ..... 26.79 ..... 24.50 ..... 27.64 ..... 26.92
5 - 25.64 ..... 25.07 ..... 25.79 ..... 25.64 ..... 27.00 ..... 27.21
6 - 25.71 ..... 26.71 ..... 26.23 ..... 25.14 ..... 27.64 ..... 26.64
You can see the disastrous transfer policy of Arsene Wenger when against Liverpool and ManLeeds, he fielded a squad of yougnsters lacking expereince and maturity with an average age of 23.36 years and 23.57 years respectively.
That is, Arsenal simply lacks that core group of 24 to 27 year old expereinced players to be a title contender.
And ManLeeds and CITEH have a relative young squad which can dominate the league for ages to come, leaving Arsenal well into the "2nd tier" team for years to come.
SImilarly, Chelski and S*CUMS have the oldest squad amongst Top-6 and they are definitely a match and may also surpass Arsenal squad in terms of quality and experience.
Liverpool squad is like a team at its peak. But is it of sufficient quality to challenge ManLeeds, CITEH and Chelski?
Guess not as they ahd been slaughtered 4-0 by S*CUMS and the managerial expertise of Daglish is quesitonable to compete for Top-4 status.