Can Wenger Break the 3rd/4th Paradigm and Finish First?

By Merlion
June 14 2015

Rather than look into a crystal ball Merlion a regular Arsenal Time Poster crunches the stats to see if Wenger can break the 3rd/4th cycle and actually finish first next season. Does it all add up? Well that's up to you dear reader, but there are some ideas here to comtemplate. His efforts start below:

Let’s have some fun in calculating the probability of us finishing Top-4 this season, and on what basis we can win the 2015/16 title.

During Arsene Wenger Era, 2005/06 was our worst season with the lowest points (67) and most losses (11).

Season … Finish .. W …. D …. L …... F ….. A … +/- … Points

Highbury Era

1996/97 … 3rd … 19 … 11 ….. 8 … 73 … 40 … 33 … 68 points

1997/98 ... 1st …. 23 ….. 9 ….. 6 … 78 … 33 … 45 … 78 points

1998/99 ... 2nd … 22 … 12 ….. 4 … 59 … 17 … 42 … 78 points

1999/00 ... 2nd … 22 ….. 7 ….. 9 … 73 … 43 … 30 … 73 points

2000/01 ... 2nd … 20 … 10 ….. 8 … 68 … 38 … 30 … 70 points

2001/02 ... 1st …. 26 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 79 … 36 … 48 … 87 points

2002/03 ... 2nd … 23 ….. 9 ….. 6 … 85 … 42 … 43 … 78 points

2003/04 ... 1st …. 26 … 12 ….. 0 … 73 … 26 … 47 … 90 points

2004/05 ... 2nd … 25 ….. 8 ….. 5 … 87 … 36 … 51 … 83 points

2005/06 ... 4th …. 20 ….. 7 … 11 … 68 … 37 … 31 … 67 points

Start of Emirates Era

2006/07 ... 4th …. 19 … 11 ….. 8 … 63 … 35 … 28 … 68 points

2007/08 ... 3rd .… 24 … 11 ….. 3 … 74 … 31 … 43 … 83 points

2008/09 ... 4th …. 20 … 12 ….. 6 … 68 … 37 … 31 … 72 points

2009/10 ... 3rd .… 23 ….. 6 ..… 9 … 83 … 41 … 42 … 75 points

2010/11 ... 4th …. 19 … 11 ….. 8 … 72 … 43 … 29 … 68 points

2011/12 ... 3rd .... 21 ….. 7 … 10 … 74 … 49 … 25 … 70 points

2012/13 ... 4th …. 21 … 10 ….. 7 … 72 … 37 … 35 … 73 points

2013/14 ... 4th …. 24 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 68 … 41 … 27 … 79 points

2014/15 … 3rd …. 22 ….. 9 ….. 7 … 71 … 36 … 35 … 75 points

Using the Probability weightage (1:4:1) on Arsenal performance at Emirates, then our most probable results basing on the consistency of Arsene Wenger’s tactics and rigid coaching and team selection method:

1st – Optimistic finish

3rd – Expected finish

4th – Pessimistic finish

3rd – Predicted League Position = [(1) + (4 x 3) + (4)] / 6 = 3

Since 2005/06 season, we finished either 3rd or 4th. We had a chance to break this jinx by finishing 2nd last season, only to fall at the final hurdle losing against Swansea and drawing with Sunderland; both home game.

The fact that we had a golden opportunity to finished 2nd reinforced the belief statistics trend (2005/06 to 2015/14) does not lie isn’t it?

28 – Optimistic no. of wins

24 – Expected no. of wins

21 – Pessimistic no. of wins

24 – Predicted no. of wins = [(28) + (4 x 24) + (21)] / 6 = 24

Our best total win (26) was when we won the title in 2001/02 and 2003/04 and 25 wins in 2004/05. Our win total is consistently around 21 to 24 wins, but never less than 19 wins. Let’s have a jump in faith that 2015/16 will be a record-breaking season achieving 28 wins. But the statistic trend still maintains it will still be 24 wins for next season.

3 – Optimistic no. of losses

7 – Expected no. of losses

7 – Pessimistic no. of losses

6 – Predicted no. losses = [(3) + (4 x 7) + (7)] / 6 = 6

Barring 2003/04, the least number of losses is 3 during 2001/02 and 2007/08. We should have won the title in 2007/08 if not for those who bottled and Captain Gallas, a poisoned chalice from Mourinho. Statistic trend predicted the best we can hope for next season is 6 losses.

87 – Optimistic no. of league goals scored

74 – Expected no. of league goals scored

68 – Pessimistic no. of league goals scored

75 – Predicted no. of league goals scored = [(87) + (4 x 74) + (68)] / 6 = 75

Our best “total goal scored” (87) was surprisingly in 2004/05. Our “total goal scored” is consistently around 71 to 74, but never less than 68 goals since 2001/02. Then it is time for Alexis, Walcott, Giroud, Welbeck, Ramsey and company to score at least 87 goals in 2015/16. The statistic trend predicted 75 goals scored.

26 – Optimistic no. of league goals conceded

31 – Expected no. of league goals conceded

37 – Pessimistic no. of league goals conceded

31 – Predicted no. of league goals conceded = [(26) + (4 x 31) + (37)] / 6 = 31

We had a mean defence in 1998/99 conceding only 17 goals. The worst season during Wenger Era is 2011/12 conceding 49 goals. On the average, my prediction is 31 goals to 37 goals conceded for next season. I am also optimistic that with current stable defence and an improving Coquelin providing that missing cover for Back-4, we can emulated the 2003/04 team with 26 goals conceded. Then the statistic trend predicted 31 goals conceded.

Do we have the squad to last the pace, without injuries, fatigue, unhappy players and losing not more than 3 games?

And we emulate 2001/02 season to remain unbeaten in 2016, winning 18 out of last 21 games?

Let’s check out some statistics on how to win the 2015/16 title.

Tabulation for all Champions from – start of 38 games league - 1995/96 to 2014/15:

Season … Finish .. W …. D …. L …... F ….. A … +/- …Points

Highbury Era

1995/96 ... 1st …. 25 ….. 7 ….. 6 … 73 … 35 … 38 … 82 … ..Manchester United

1996/97 ... 1st …. 21 … 12 ….. 5 … 76 … 44 … 32 … 75 … …Manchester United

1997/98 ... 1st …. 23 ….. 9 ….. 6 … 78 … 33 … 45 … 78 … …Arsenal

1998/99 ... 1st …. 22 … 13 ….. 3 … 80 … 37 … 43 … 79 … … Manchester United

1999/00 ... 1st …. 28 ….. 7 ….. 3 … 97 … 45 … 52 … 91 … … Manchester United

2000/01 ... 1st …. 24 ….. 8 ….. 6 … 79 … 31 … 48 … 80 … … Manchester United

2001/02 ... 1st …. 26 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 79 … 36 … 48 … 87 … … Arsenal

2002/03 ... 1st …. 25 ….. 8 ….. 5 … 74 … 34 … 40 … 83... ...Manchester United

2003/04 ... 1st …. 26 … 12 ….. 0 … 73 … 26 … 47 … 90 … … Arsenal

2004/05 ... 1st …. 29 ….. 8 ….. 1 … 72 … 15 … 57 … 95 … …Chelski

2005/06 ... 1st …. 29 ….. 4 ….. 5 … 72 … 22 … 50 … 91 … …Chelski

Start of Emirates Era

2006/07 ... 1st …. 28 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 83 … 27 … 56 … 89 … … Manchester United

2007/08 ... 1st …. 27 ….. 6 ….. 5 … 80 … 22 … 58 … 87 ... ...Manchester United

2008/09 ... 1st …. 28 ….. 6 ….. 4 … 68 … 24 … 44 … 90 … … Manchester United

2009/10 ... 1st …. 27 ….. 5 ..… 6 .. 103 … 32 … 71 …86 ... … Chelski

2010/11 ... 1st …. 23 … 11 ….. 4 … 78 … 37 … 41 … 80 … … Manchester United

2011/12 ... 1st …. 28 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 93 … 29 … 64 … 89 … … Abu Dhabi City

2012/13 ... 1st …. 28 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 86 … 43 … 43 … 89 … … Manchester United

2013/14 ... 1st …. 27 ….. 5 ….. 6 .. 102 … 37 … 65 … 86 … Abu Dhabi City

2014/15 ... 1st …. 26 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 73 … 32 … 41 …87 … … Chelski

The most win is 29 by Chelski during 2004/05 and 2005/06. ManU won the title in 1996/97 with the least win total (21). On the average form 2006/07 season, the total win is frequently 27 or 28 wins. Arsenal must win 28 games then.

For the last 9 seasons, all champions had lost not more than 6 games and last season, Chelski lost only 3 games.

My expectation is that the 2015/16 champion will not score less than 73 goals and needs to score at least 83 goals to stand a chance to win the title.

3 – Optimistic no. of losses

5 – Expected no. of losses

6 – Pessimistic no. of losses

4 – Predicted no. of losses = [(3) + (4 x 5) + (6)] / 6 = 4

(A six year old could understand that, I am off to find one to explain it to me. Editor)

Goals

103 – Optimistic no. of league goals scored

83 -– Expected no. of league goals scored

73 -– Pessimistic no. of league goals scored

85 -– Predicted no. of league goals scored = [(103) + (4 x 83) + (73)] / 6 = 85

In summary, my expectation is at least 3rd with a good chance of winning the 2015/16 title.

Season … Finish .. W …. D …. L …... F ….. A … +/- … Points

2015/16 … 3rd …. 24 ….. 8 ….. 6 … 75 … 31 … 44 … 80 – Enough for 3rd place finish?