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Re: I Do Miss Alastair Down
Posted by: BC2
Date: 13/04/2016 13:41
I didn't study the form CW and I agree you can make a case out for most of them. But I think a horse that already had two wins on heavy ground and had run 2nd in the Irish National over 29f, was a likelier winner of last Saturday's Aintree race than a class horse like say Silviniano Conti, that has never even run on heavy, has no form over further than 25f and has never even looked like getting up the hill at Cheltenham, never mind winning a National. Yet that goes off at 12/1 and the Irish National runner-up goes off 33/1, doesn't make sense to me.

I like my stats but that one about never having won a chase is one I'd ignore, it had 26 horses behind it in the Irish National and if Thunder And Roses had fell at the last it would have won, the stat wouldn't exist, but it would have been exactly the same performance from the horse. If you're looking for a National horse then imo you're better off looking for form in the other Nationals, and long distance chases like maybe the Eider, rather than Gold Cup or King George form. And the winner had that form.

Even so you'd still be left with a long list of potential winners I would imagine, you'd still need a pin.(Sm14)

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