Stats Incredible: Airdrie defying the odds...

By The Grumpy Old Git
December 4 2005

This hasn’t been the happiest season ever to be an Airdrie fan but approaching the halfway mark of our league campaign some startling facts are starting to emerge that would seem to suggest that rather than go backward, Airdrie may actually be moving in a positive direction…

The end of 2004/5 season saw Airdrie lose a significant number high profile players. Gone were aging talisman Owen Coyle although the hitman’s strikerate was tailing off, strike partner Alan Gow was heading in the other direction albeit with Falkirk and Marvyn Wilson was the most hurtful departure when moving to local rivals Hamilton for a barrowload of cash. What could Airdrie possibly do? Although we finished the league comfortably in fifth place on 50 points we had almost got dragged back towards the frantic relegation fight before a late spurt carried us to safety. We scored only 44 goals despite having Gow and Coyle, and leaked and alarming 48 league goals. With a budget set lower than the season just finished it was fair enough to say that Sandy Stewart had his work cut out. Relegation was the only thoughts on many minds, myself included, when we got off to an awful start back in August with defeats on the road to Stranraer and Raith Rovers.

So how could Sandy Stewart replace the goals of Coyle and Gow and keep Airdrie competitive enough to survive? Firstly he had to do a bit of re-engineering with the defence. McGeown had his faults in goals, Christie was a walking nightmare at times and Willie Wilson was about three divisions above his level. All three guys went and the defence looks much more reliable for it. The solidifying of our defence didn’t happen overnight, mistakes were made and lessons learnt early in the season but eventually our form settled, with McKenna emerging as a reliable foil for McManus and McGowan at the back. Consider though that sometimes our eyes can be deceiving - the proof is in the stats. Last season we lost 48 goals. So far this season we’ve lost only 17 in 17 league games. If current form, which hasn’t exactly been brilliant, is at worst consistent, we are on schedule to lose around 12 goals less than last season. Last year we scored 44 goals yet so far this year we have scored 22 goals, exactly half of last season’s total and we aren’t even at the halfway stage yet! Not bad going considering the obvious talent that’s been lost?

So what does it all mean? We’re still a few points off of last season’s pace but there are a few factors. We lost a lot of experience during the summer. Out went McGeown, W.Wilson, Christie, Roberts, Varielle, M.Wilson, Gow and Coyle. In came ‘cheaper’, less experienced replacements in Twigg, Fraser Coyle, Prunty, Robertson, Holmes and allegedly washed out part-timer McPhee. Promoted were Hollis, McKenna, MacDougall, and add to that the ‘relocation’ within the team of McKeown and McLaren to a full-time midfield role. With so much of a reshuffling, and the blooding of so many inexperienced players, it was never going to be a polished performance this season. But to have actually improved on so many key performance indicators at this stage of our transitional season is nothing short of phenomenal.

So maybe next time we hear a “haw Sandy” it may be worth considering just how good his performance has actually been. Sure we aren’t perfect but look at what’s happening. We have a lot of young players gaining valuable experience this season. McKenna is developing into a fine player. Coyle is now getting a wee run after his shaky start. McKeown has become at least the equal of Marvyn Wilson but with infinitely better passing skills. McLaren has been much improved since being brought in from the wing where he was being criminally overworked. MacDougall looks like he could outdo Gow though the manager seems to be deliberately holding back with him, probably determined not to burn out his young prodigy. Prunty is finally getting a regular game, and, despite not hitting the target with the regularity I thought he would, he looks like he could if he can get the proper service his finishing skills deserve. Twigg too looked like he can become a goal-scorer too given a chance. When he gets back from his ankle injury in a few weeks it’ll be interesting to see him go.

If this team can be kept together it may only take a few additions to have us in a position to challenge in the coming seasons. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that we could do with some fresh talent in central defence as we’re painfully thin in that department. But as I said earlier, the stats aren’t lying. We have managed to bounce back and that is credit to Sandy Stewart and his team. Look at the figures: Only a few points off of last season’s pace, scoring at a slightly higher rate, and most significant of all, on schedule to lose at least 12 goals less than last season. Absolutely incredible considering where we were at the end of August?